or just don’t have a clue in general
OK, another contest entrant! Excellent! ghctim, you’re ‘in.’ I’ll edit the last posted list to slot you in.
We’re in danger of having our first ‘casualty.’ Assuming no one new comes along and claims a date between Aug. 1 and 14, plainsane will officially fall off the list on or about Aug. 7th.
Thanks to all for joining in on a little fun.
I watched the price is right a lot as a kid. I think they’ll play it safe with a somewhat stable release, and we haven’t heard anything lately. I’ll say Jan 1st.
I’ll go with September 26th
Oh my! We have our first ‘not until 2018’ contest entrant. Bill.Maupin is the first to predict that Rachio is going to miss all of the 2017 season with a Jan. 1st prediction for a ‘go live’ date.
Jazzer is ‘in’ at Sep. 26th.
The ‘over/under’ is still in favor of a 3Q 'go-live announcement.
Time to repost the list:
plainsane = Aug. 1st
preilly44 = Aug. 14th
(anyone above this point is ‘officially’ out
Linn = Aug. 28th
a0128958 = Sep. 14th
Marainwater = Sep. 21st
Jazzer = Sep. 26th
ghctim = Sep. 29th
jim_gately = Sep. 30th
Modawg2k = Oct. 1st
jkb = Oct. 15th
JasonM = Oct. 23rd
DLane = Nov. 1st
jleh = Nov. 3rd
tmcgahey = Dec. 1st
Bill.Maupin = Jan. 1st, 2018
rgstech = Mar. 1st
shcaine = Mar. 15th
And, just to keep everything in one place:
Here’s the contest: Have some fun predicting what date Rachio Iro V3 ‘goes live’ to the general public (As confirmed by someone from Rachio authorized to say it.)
And here’s the prize: FOUR 60W equivalent 9W LED lamps, commercial quality, 2700 degree Kelvin color match to traditional tungsten lamps, omni-directional, over 50,000 hrs run time capability, 5 year warranty, meeting the latest version 2 Energy Star requirements, manufactured by Earthtronics (private label manufacturer for Philips and Sylvania).
And here are the rules - pretty simple:
(1) In case of tie, accuracy is the tie breaker. I.e., if the announced date ends up being Aug. 31, someone who says ‘Aug. 31st’ wins the tie over someone who says ‘last week of Aug.’
(2) Anyone with a signed NDA with Rachio, or a Rachio company is not eligible, regardless of when the NDA was signed. Likewise, anyone with a relationship with a Rachio employee, or who’s a Rachio employee, is not eligible.
(3) No ‘double dipping.’ Once you’re ‘in’ you’re ‘in.’ And once you’re ‘out’ you’re ‘out.’
(4) No ‘Ebay bidding.’ Let’s use 2 weeks as minimum time between date of one’s contest entry and ‘guess’ date.
And lastly a couple of ‘fine print’ items:
(1) Rachio has no involvement with this contest, other than (a) I’m using their community posting system to advertise it, and (b) I’ll ask them to affirm that a published or stated ‘go live’ date is indeed legit. The contest is simply my idea to have a little fun. Prize material is all from me - I’m donating it from my business. I do energy monitoring and conversion to LED lighting projects for commercial entities.
(2) While this is an anonymous contest, it does assume the winner will privately disclose to me his/her name and mailing address so that I can send the winning prize. If you prefer to remain anonymous (or don’t want/need the prize) just post a note here or to me to that effect. It will be easy to find a local charitable institution to donate the LED lamps to.
March 1, 2018
You’re ‘in’ rgstech. Now there’s two of you for 2018. I edited the list above.
The ‘over/under’ on Rachio making it in 3Q is now 50/50. There are just as many predicting post-3Q as there are predicting sometime in 3Q.
I also edited the ‘Ebay rule,’ increasing it from 1 to 2 weeks. This doesn’t affect anyone currently on the list.
OK. Since I think that Rachio operates on the waterfall model, which results in a very few, major, upgrades per unit time, I’'m going to guess their current target date is 2018-03-01 but, since things never hit the target date, I’ll pick 2027-03-15 as the actual release date.
Steve, before I put you ‘in,’ let me verify your desired date! You did mean to write 2018-03-15, not 2027-03-15?
Ooops! Yep. I meant 2017.
I see I’m really good at typos on this for some reason The date I meant was next year, March 15, 2018.
shcaine, you’re ‘in’! See an earlier posting that I edited.
In summary, at the moment, this ‘totally on the outside looking in group’ is ‘expertly’ forecasting only 50/50 odds that Rachio makes it, fully public in production, in 3Q, versus later in the year or next year.
Eeny, meeny, miny, moe… since anyone’s guess is as good as mine (anyone on the “out” at least), I’m going to go with Nov 3rd, 2017.
(Releasing on a Friday gives you the weekend to fix any last minute critical bugs )
Rules per a0128958
“(4) No ‘Ebay bidding.’ Let’s use 2 weeks as minimum time between date of one’s contest entry and ‘guess’ date.”
“I also edited the ‘Ebay rule,’ increasing it from 1 to 2 weeks. This doesn’t affect anyone currently on the list.”
OK, jleh is ‘in’. Scroll up to see the revised list.
No changes to the rules or ‘fine print.’ I did update the prize description to include that these are lamps that meet the new Version 2 Energy Star program.
We’ve had our first casualty. planesane is ‘out.’ He/she was the most optimistic of any of us - Aug. 1st. planesane was also one of the first contest entrants. At the time, his/her Aug. 1st date seemed like a reasonable guess.
Now the over/under is shifting to a 4Q or later availability estimate. Indeed the sentiment appears to be ‘get it right’ versus ‘make it available now come hell or high water.’
If I had more LED lamps to give away, I’d start another contest to have some fun predicting what features ‘make the cut.’ More than 16 zones? (I think so) Ethernet connection? (I don’t think so) Delay between zones on/off? (I think so) Improvements with flow sensing? (I don’t think so) Expansion of WSG to grass types, like Burmuda, Buffalo, St. Augustine, etc.? (I think so) Turn on multiple zones simultaneously while still maintaining individual control? (I don’t think so) Dramatically better s/w performance for all browsers? (I think so) Ability to put in a moisture sensor in to each zone, versus for master valve only? (I don’t think so) Far fewer keystrokes to get to detail that’s currently in the charts for Flex Daily? (I think so) Cover fixed so that it can be removed after PVC pipe with wires properly installed to controller (I don’t think so). Etc.
preilly44 (Aug. 14th) is ‘officially’ out. That’s two now.
Linn (Aug 28th) is within a few days of being out .
And I thought for sure I was being conservative by guessing that by my birthday the announcement would have been made. Looking increasingly like a0128958 (Sep. 14th) is going to be out soon too!
Linn is ‘out’ - Aug. 28th has come and gone.
I’m about to be ‘out’ - Sep. 14th is rapidly approaching.
And here I thought by using a sophisticated estimating technique (my birthday) I’d guess right!
Oh my! I’ve been busy so haven’t had much opportunity to watch contest details lately. I have the prize for the winner off on a separate shelf to ensure I don’t lose it.
Three more are ‘out’ - I think that’s 5 ‘casualties’ so far.
Linn = Aug. 28th
a0128958 (me) = Sep. 14th (my birthday)
Marainwater = Sep. 21st (almost ‘out’ - I can’t read a calendar)
And ‘last in’ is close to be out too:
Jazzer = Sep. 26th
All of you who who ‘signed up’ for 4Q were clairvoyant. I think most would agree there was no idea Rachio would go this long.
I’m (marainwater) am still holding onto hope - 48 hours left until I’m a casualty! With ios11 coming out yesterday and HomeKit now supporting sprinkler systems, I’m hoping rachio was just waiting for Apple to officially release the new iOS.