Hey there,
After reading through the thread this does sound like a perfect storm of issues resulting in a watering getting pushed back. Flex Daily was designed for established plants and not new seed/sod I have not looked into your settings or watering history @ady624 (I can if you would like me to) but the three day/week restriction that you have might play into it. Even if you do have false forecasts every single day, after a couple days a watering will trigger if the schedule is allowed to water each day. But, I can see my analysis here being invalid if each day’s forecasted is showing very large amounts of precipitation in inches of rain where the precipitation amount would take the moisture level above field capacity. I do like the suggestion on new ways to handle different probability of precipitation values.