Rain Skip. Please explain the email I received

Hi all,
This morning I received an email informing me that “Weather Intelligence applied a Rain Skip”. Excellent, infact it has been raining for 24 hours.
The email reported:

What do “observed=0” and “predicted=3,96” mean?
What period do they refer to?

I am asking because in the last 24 hours we got 17mm of rain and the forecast for the next 48 hours is for 20mm of rain:

So what is the meaning of “observed=0” and “predicted=3,96” ?

As already asked in another thread (to @franz that didn’t answer to this question), can someone inform from which weather service are the forecast and observed data taken from.
Or how to increase the reliability?


The most precise and controllable source of precipitation would be if the system is set to reference a single Personal Weather Station, Ideally at your location (maintained by you), or very close by (but well maintained)

Hi @scrambler
thanks for your reply.
I actually have my PWS at the same coordinates of the Rachio equipment (correctly configured in the settings).
But the problem is not only the precipitation, but also the forecast.

Yesterday evening I have received another email:

This time “observed=8.89mm” and “predicted=0.00”, while the weather underground is forecasting 4.40mm in the next 48 hours. See:

So, I really need to understand what “observed” and “predicted” mean and which weather forecast service Rachio is using.

@franz, as you are the CTO if the company, can you shed some light on this issue?


One thing to look for with weather and the observed/predicted is what source your weather is being observed from Rachio. You may be using the Weather Network that aggregates data from multiple / different weather stations to try and provide the weather closest to your location. You may also be using a PWS that is different than the one in your screenshot.

If either of these are the case, it would explain why the weather Rachio sees is different than what that weather station is reporting from WU. Here’s an article talking about the different options and how/where to change them if there’s a weather station close to you or one that is reporting more accurate results:

I would assume actual should be the set source for weather station in Weather Intelligence +.
So if you have double checked that your Rachio is set to use your weather station, actual precipitation should match the precipitation reported by your weather station.
Another place to check the used precipitation, is by going into your zone, and clicking on the soil moisture, that should show when the moisture is being replenished on a daily basis, and clicking on more detail, you should see how much was used every day.
Again, if the weather intelligence + is set properly on your weather station, this should roughly match your weather station report.

As for the forecast, this is not as clear, but it is very possible Rachio is not using WU, but an aggregate of various weather information. It would be nice if Rachio could confirm what is being used for the forecast when weather intelligence+ is set on a single PWS.

Hi @zachio,
I read the article you posted. As I own a Rachio 3, the article suggests to use Weather Intelligence + (Weather Network) instead of a single PWS.
I will try PWS to see if anything changes.
In the meantime, yesterday at 20:25 I received the following notifications:

So apparently yesterday at 20:25 according to Weather Intelligence + the forecasted precipitation for the next 48 hours was 9.4mm, but looking at Weather Network for my location the forecast was completely different:

The main reason why I purchased a smart sprinkler system is to avoid to waste water. I understand that weather forecast are not 100% precise (infact they are forecast) but my question is why the forecast in Weather Network do not match the forecast inside Rachio?
I understand that forecast can be wrong, but I cannot understand why the Weather network data and Rachio data do not match if they use the same underlying data.

You are right @scrambler. We should have the confirmation from Rachio about what forecast is used when PWS is selected, because mu PWS can only tell the history and the present conditions, but cannot forecast the weather.

adding an email I received yesterday that I haven’t seen:
Please note the mismatch between the notification message (above) and the email message: in the notification, the predicted=9.4mm, while in the email the observed=9.4 and predicted=0.
Is there a user manual where I can understand what “predicted” and “observed” really mean?

My weather station is a few blocks from my controllers location. I am having the same rain and soil saturation problems where the controller doesn’t seem to know that it has been raining for 3 days straight. Does Flex Daily or Flex Monthly affect this?

Have you checked to make sure that the weather station you are using is reporting preciptation?

How do I do that?

From the web interface, go to the Home screen. Right under the weather icons you should see “weather Station” with an arrow. When you click on that you will see the one’s available and the one you are using. Click on more info, and you will be able to see what that station is reporting.

From the IOS app it’s a little different to get to it. Click on More, then controller settings, then weather intelligence plus, then weather station, then you will get to the screen that shows the available weather stations and which one you are using. (At least that’s how I get to it on my iphone now. — I have NO idea why it changed to be so complicated on the mobile app. Sigh …)

But the web interface layout in iOS (and Android) was very well done. Just say “no” to mobile apps.

Hi Rachio team,
I am glad that my issue got many others interest.

But unfortunately Rachio Technical Support is not answering regarding the issue.
@franz, can you please come in and inform us about the questions above?

Your help will be appreciated.

I am having the same problem with my Rachio Gen1. It was working very well until few week ago, but now I received very often a “Activation rain skip” messagge, but looking at the weather station I am using there are not precipitation for the next 48 hours.

I suspect that there is no will on Rachio side to answer to this question.
I hope I am wrong.

Hi all,
no answers?